Alex Hammond blog: Rain dance required for L’Homme Presse at Kempton in King George | Racing News

0
77
L'Homme Presse


Sky Sports Racing presenter Alex Hammond is back with her Christmas blog, taking aim at the King George, Long Walk Hurdle and the Welsh Grand National.

Amongst all the rushing around for Christmas in the Hammond house, there is some serious racing to look forward to over the festive period, it’s no wonder my house guests choose to leave on Boxing Day as I’m not a great host come lunchtime on the 26th.

After the loss of so many fixtures in recent weeks, there is a gluttonous feast of racing to come, and you’ll need eyes in the back of your head and fresh batteries in the remote to make it through.

The focus of attention on Boxing Day is Kempton where the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase is the feature. Bravemansgame is Sky Bet’s 13/8 favourite with stablemates Hitman at 9/2 and Frodon is at 16s to repeat his win from 2020.

You don’t need me to tell you that their trainer Paul Nicholls has an affinity with this contest. If one of that trio prevails, it will be his 13th victory in the race. Almost time to commission a statue!

I’m a fan of L’Homme Presse and have been since he set foot on British soil. Hopefully the ground will be soft enough for the Venetia Williams-trained seven-year-old, who comes here having taken the old-fashioned route of carrying a big weight to success in a handicap.

He gave almost two stone to the runner-up when winning Newcastle’s Rehearsal Chase a month ago, it was some performance and I love him (almost as much as Documenting!).

Bravemansgame and Harry Cobden jumps to victory in the Charlie Hall Chase
Image:
Bravemansgame and Harry Cobden jumps to victory in the Charlie Hall Chase

He’s 2/1 second favourite and I’m about to do a Kempton rain dance. It’s good to see the Ladbrokes Long Walk Hurdle being saved from Ascot’s recently abandoned Christmas fixture and it means we should get the opportunity to see the old boys, Champ and Paisley Park face off again.

They are first and third in the betting (2/1 and 3/1 respectively) and there’s only 1lb between them on ratings with Champ slightly superior.

The Paul Nicholls-trained mare, Miranda, is second favourite at 9/4 but has to find a bit more on official ratings.

Gary Moore has Botox Has and the enigmatic Goshen entered. Goshen could be an intriguing runner if he steps up to three miles for the first time.

Paisley Park
Image:
Paisley Park

You can’t discount the outsider Not So Sleepy either. Last year’s joint winner of the Fighting Fifth Hurdle (with Epatante) is unpredictable but talented and on his day capable of ruffling a few feathers.

He was no match for Constitution Hill in this year’s running, but who was?! Like Goshen, he has yet to race over a trip this far, but he stays over two miles on the flat so there is hope.

At 14/1 he is worth considering to run into a place if five or more of the six entries are declared.

Christmas Hurdle a present for Constitution Hill?

The Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle this year is comparable to an expensive gift you thought would be the centre of your world, but you find you don’t get value for money from.

That’s not to say your eyes won’t light up as you unwrap it, because that bad boy is sprinkled with stardust. Constitution Hill is that glittery gift and maybe we just need to get used to the fact he’s in a different stratosphere to everything else and that his races will be uncompetitive.

Constitution Hill
Image:
Constitution Hill

Does that matter, not really. Like that impractical gift, it’s thrilling and beautiful and you are delighted to have it in your life. He’s 1/5 favourite to win again.

The Coral Welsh Grand National at Chepstow on Tuesday is like that Christmas present that you didn’t know you wanted and have unexpectedly found to be one of the most useful and enjoyable.

Unlike many of the less competitive offerings over these few days, it is a punter’s dream. With 51 entries it looks like a maximum field of 20 is a given and that gives us loads of options.

Venetia Williams is no stranger to success in this race thanks to Jocks Cross in 2000 and Emperor’s Choice in 2014 and she has a strong hand in 2022.

Quick Wave is Sky Bet’s 5/1 favourite for good reason. This mare has excelled since going chasing and the step up to marathon trips has been the making of her.

She’s also unbeaten in two starts since undergoing a wind operation and for a nine-year-old she’s relatively lightly raced. It’s hard to find too many negatives about her, bar the price in such a competitive contest.

Ask Me Early to strike back at Chepstow?

Ask Me Early was a strong fancy for this race in 2021 before a nasty schooling fall at home put paid to that. He hasn’t shown the same sparkle in two starts since, but he’s entitled to be sharper for his return at Bangor in early November.

This has been his target since he returned to action, and I find it hard to leave him off my shortlist. Irish trainer Peter Fahey has made a habit of doing well with the horses he’s brought over to race in the UK.

It’s also been profitable following all his travelling runners. This year’s strike rate is 38% and backing all his runners here in Britain would have yielded you a profit of £8.88 to a £1 level stake.

So, The Big Dog should be on your radar for that reason alone. The fact he’s won two notable staying handicap chases in his native Ireland also advertises his claims. The handicapper has hit him pretty hard though and he’s up 18lbs for his wins in the Munster National and Troytown.

It may not be enough to stop him though. He was fancied for this race last year when a howling error at the open ditch in the home straight with a circuit to go, resulted in him being pulled up soon after.

He had been plinking along in his own sweet time in the early part of the race but was travelling noticeably well at the time of the error and he comes into calculations once more.

The Galloping Bear is another horse made for this race. His trainer Ben Clarke is making a name for himself with staying chasers and this horse has contributed to that.

It’s unfortunate that he was disqualified from first place in the Grand National Trial at Haydock back in February having tested positive for a banned race day substance, with cross contamination given as the likely cause of that.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Irish trainer Peter Fahey is hoping for better luck this time around with Welsh Grand National contender The Big Dog, live on Sky Sports Racing.

He also missed this race last year having scoped badly a few days before, and providing the ground is soft or worse, he’ll run well. He looks capable of operating well off his current handicap rating and if the rain comes, he’s one of my leading contenders. I fear that might not be the case sadly.

The forecast is promising for those who live in the area and fancy some bracing walks over Christmas, but there may not be enough rain to make it the test he requires. Last year’s winner was Iwilldoit who provided Welsh trainers with their third successive victory in the contest.

It was the turn of Sam Thomas to lift the trophy and if this horse defends his crown, it will be the first time he has run since that famous victory. The race is run in the memory of Kim Gingell, so there won’t be a dry eye in the house if her brother Joe Tizzard wins it with The Big Breakaway.

This horse looked like he was going to be a superstar in the early part of his career, but he’s not quite fulfilled that potential just yet.

Iwilldoit jumps the last at Chepstow clear of the field in the Welsh National
Image:
Iwilldoit jumps the last at Chepstow clear of the field in the Welsh National

Having said that, his yard has struggled for form during his winless spell and things are looking brighter now. This sort of stamina test could be just what he’s crying out for, and he ran well on his seasonal debut at Haydock last month.

He was eye-wateringly expensive as a four-year-old (360,000 euro) and now three years later it could be his time to shine. He’s 12/1 with Sky Bet.

I wish you a peaceful time over the holidays and enjoy all the sport, let’s hope the weather doesn’t intervene. See you at Chepstow on the 27th.



Source link